Small wonders

IT products rooted in nanotechnology could have a big impact on data processing in the coming decade.

by Alan Joch

In the minuscule world of nanotechnology, new and potentially revolutionary products are being created. And the tiny particles that make nanotechnology work are having a very big impact on everything from the fairway to the clothing store to the computer lab. Scientists, venture capital firms and a growing number of commercial companies generally use "nano" to describe elements measuring less than 100 nanometers, or roughly one one-thousandth the thickness of a human hair. Nanotechnology, the science of rejiggering physical properties at these minute levels, promises to transform everything by enhancing common, everyday objects. Want a golf ball that flies straighter? Nanotech is the answer.

But some of the biggest gains from thinking small may eventually come to people who analyze data using business intelligence (BI) and other information processing systems. Already, nanotech researchers are making inroads in key elements of data analysis, including computer processors, storage devices and display technology. Developments like these may finally make the dream of "ubiquitous computing," where nanotech data-gathering sensors are embedded into clothing fabrics and other everyday items, a reality. But therein also lies a challenge.

"Suddenly, you've got information overload. Everything you interact with and touch becomes a data stream," says David Lackner, senior analyst for Lux Research, a nanotech market research firm headquartered in New York City. "That's always been the problem with the concept of ubiquitous computing—how do you handle all the information coming at you? Nanotechnology could hasten the need for better information technology solutions to analyze the data being captured by all of these devices."

Chip innovations
Nanotechnology and microprocessors make an attractive pair thanks to the electrical conductivity of nanotubes, basic nano building blocks, which can carry thousands of times more current than today's materials. When packed tightly together in a circuit, nanotubes have the potential of producing processors that run faster while using less electricity and wasting less energy as expelled heat than conventional, silicon-based chips.

These properties are important as chipmakers constantly strive to shrink processor internals to pack more performance into the package. Experts expect that chip components will decline in size to 20 nanometers or less in the next 10 years, a steep drop from the 90 nanometers of today. But chip manufacturing plants, known as "fabs," must become increasingly more sophisticated to create those types of chips in commercial quantities, which adds to the cost of production. Thus, in that same 10-year period, the cost of building a fab could hit $10 billion, or five times today's price tag. Carbon nanotubes may successfully marry the smaller-is-better strategy with economical production facilities. Infineon Technologies, the large German chipmaker, is working on nanotech processor prototypes, according to Samuel Brauer, principal at Nanotech Plus LLC, a Stamford, Conn., market research consultancy that focuses on nanotechnology. "Infineon recently showed it could produce a carbon nanotube transistor with higher performance than anything you could do with silicon," Brauer says.

For its part, microprocessor leader Intel is already working at a minuscule size for its current generations of chips, yet it does so using current semiconductor manufacturing technology. Intel is saying publicly that it doesn't believe carbon nanotubes will be widely used in chip production for at least another decade, according to Brauer. But some observers expect a more aggressive timeframe as the laws of physics and manufacturing economics bring carbon nanotubes to the forefront. Others point out that while the concept of simple nano-based computer chips may exist in cutting-edge research labs today, scaling the processors to be equivalent to the millions of transistors in today's processors remains an unproven goal.

Trust your memory
According to Lackner, a number of firms, including Nantero Inc., a Woburn, Mass.-based memory developer, are working to harness nanotechnology for storage devices. The goal: to equate one carbon nanotube to one "bit" of data, a capability that would mean storage makers could pack more data into smaller forms.

These developers are pioneering the use of carbon nanotube "crossbars," essentially nanotubes arranged with one over another to create an "X" shape. "The point where the nanotubes intersect is where you create the binary logic of the ones and zeros to represent data," Lackner explains. "Depending on whether you run a current through one bar or another you will connect the bars or disconnect them to create a one or zero." Devices based on this system "would be more robust, more dense, more scalable and they would offer non-volatile memory," Lackner notes. Non-volatile memory devices retain the information that's been saved to them even after the power supply has been cut off. Traditional hard drives are non-volatile, while memory, other than the expensive "flash" variety, is volatile. Non-volatile memory at a more affordable price would provide a performance boost to computers while also protecting data from accidental loss.

When might we see nanotube memory products? Brauer believes they may be in commercial storage technology in less than five years. Two memory-chip makers have made a substantial financial commitment to the technology. In Richmond, Va., Infineon built a four-acre, $2 billion fab that uses robotics to produce nanotech chips. Nantero has partnered with an established chip vendor to develop nanotech memory with silicon manufacturing facilities.

Bigger displays
The drive for lowering manufacturing costs while boosting performance isn't limited to the microprocessor world. Screen makers are building flat panels using carbon nanotubes that may eventually enable larger and more economical computer displays, as well as TVs with screens big enough to make electronics fans swoon.

Plasma and LCD screen manufacturing costs have steadily declined in recent years, which helped push the acceptance of flat-panel screens into offices and home entertainment centers. But some observers believe there's only so much efficiency to be squeezed out of the manufacturing process to lower prices for traditional-sized displays and allow for larger screen sizes at affordable prices in the future. To hedge their bets, Mitsubishi, Motorola, Samsung and other screen makers are investing in carbon nanotube research, which may eventually produce higher resolutions at a cheaper price. In traditional cathode ray tube (CRT) TV displays, electron guns shoot beams of light into a phosphorous panel, which a scanner then turns into a viewable image. The nanotech equivalent uses a carbon nanotube to act as an individual electron gun—one for every screen pixel—to achieve high resolutions even in large screen sizes.

Applied Nanotech Inc., an Austin, Texas, startup, recently unveiled a "proof of concept" for a high-resolution, 14-inch diagonal carbon nanotube TV. Dr. Zvi Yaniv, chief executive officer, expects the technology will be used in progressively larger displays, including a 25-inch version, now being developed by a consortium of Japanese firms, and eventually in 60- and 100-inch models.

"The dream of every TV engineer is to produce a flat-screen TV that produces images that are as beautiful as a CRT's," Yaniv says. To provide a dedicated electron beam for every pixel, engineers need a material that works at low voltages. "Carbon nanotubes have a nice property (that works well for this). ... They emit electrons at very low voltages."

To keep manufacturing costs down, Applied Nanotech believes display makers will produce the large nanotech screens using a type of printing process that will be substantially less expensive than today's manufacturing methods. This innovation will "dramatically reduce the capital investment needed to produce (carbon nanotube) TVs," Yaniv says. "This capital investment is expected to be approximately 80% less than that for large-area LCD and plasma televisions."

Full-fledged carbon nanotube screens may not be the first commercial products on store shelves, however. Preceding them may be displays that use other, iterative electron emission mechanisms, such as surface electron conduction (SEC). Applied Nanotech already licenses SEC technology to two Japanese manufacturers, and it may be commercially available later this year.

Even so, a switch to nanotube technology is just a matter of time. "It's our opinion that carbon nanotubes will be replacing SEC in the next three years," says Yaniv. He adds that 100-inch carbon nanotube TVs may be available for less than $2,000 within a decade.

Hurdles remain
Lab breakthroughs and "what if" scenarios are fine, but first the nanotechnology industry has to overcome some practical hurdles on the road to commercialization—not the least of which is to come up with a basic definition of what exactly is "nanotech."

Brauer complains that the widely held definition based on size "doesn't make a lot of sense scientifically because it doesn't adequately distinguish conventional materials and quantum materials, which is where science is headed." The problem with the current definition, he believes, is that it encompasses too large a universe. "Re-labeling existing technology as 'nano' is saying that mature technologies will grow at new technology rates, and that is misleading. This leads to unreasonable expectations and makes people think nanotechnology is a lot of hype," Brauer believes. Another hurdle occurs in manufacturing plants. Nanotechnology must scale to commercial quantities.

"The scale-up issue has not really been attacked," Lackner points out. "We just don't know what we'll face when going to mass production." But progress is being made. In May, Samsung Electronics announced it has developed new diagnostic software for nano-class semiconductor products. The new software, dubbed ESCORT (Estimation of Chip Performance on Process Tolerance), gauges semiconductor circuit design for potential errors in the early stages of designing nanometer-scale circuitry. According to Samsung, by running simulations in the preliminary design stage, engineers can flag potential design errors before moving to prototypes, saving time and money. Based on the reduced design time and increased wafer yields, the company believes the software has the potential to save up to $30 million in annual development costs. Which is another sign that a science that takes small to the extreme may soon have a huge impact on our lives. T

Double-edged development

Commercial nanotech development is following two tracks. The first, and up to now most economically significant, applies the technology to existing products, says Samuel Brauer, principal at Nanotech Plus LLC, a Stamford, Conn., market research consultancy that focuses on nanotechnology. Manufacturers of such products as integrated circuits, disk drives and optics work at nano-level tolerances to squeeze better performance out of their devices. The second approach builds nano-products from the ground up rather than enhancing traditional materials. Companies doing nanotech research also fall into two categories. Much of the groundbreaking development is coming from smaller startups looking to carve out a niche in the young market. They include companies such as Applied Nanotech, an Austin, Texas, startup, and Nantero Inc., a Woburn, Mass.-based memory developer, both of which are using carbon nanotubes as the basis for display screens and computer memory, respectively. But a symbiotic relationship is developing between startups and established companies, such as Samsung in electronics and DuPont in chemicals. "The big companies are realizing they have to fund internal R&D projects just to understand how they might incorporate nanotechnology when a small company comes to them," says Lackner. "When it comes to actually making the products, the small companies need the market channels and resources of the larger firms." The partnering model is one similarity between the nanotech industry's development and what existed in the early days of biotech. "However, the evolution of the nanotech industry is more accurately compared to the Industrial Revolution," Lackner believes. "Look at how the Industrial Revolution took some basic technologies, such as electricity, steel and motors, and used them to drive manufacturing. It affected all kinds of industries—it didn't matter if you were using motors in sewing machines to make clothing or in production plants to make cars. Either way, a combination of groundbreaking technologies made them possible." In 10 years, people won't go out and buy "nanotech," he believes, but we may buy a variety of products with nanotech under the covers. "You will have nanotechnology enabling different functionality in different products and never know it's in there," Lackner notes.

Alan Joch is a New England-based business and technology writer whose work has appeared in The New York Times, Fortune Small Business and Byte.